AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Vistra Corp. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag VST as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Vistra Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for VST comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value VST?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. VST was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from VST's most recent reported fundamentals.

VST - Vistra Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $208.85 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 217.9% above fair value

Current Price $156.14

Bear Case $40.18 74.3% downside ($40.18 - $156.14) / $156.14 = -74.3% $2.21 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $49.11 68.5% downside ($49.11 - $156.14) / $156.14 = -68.5% $2.21 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $58.04 62.8% downside ($58.04 - $156.14) / $156.14 = -62.8% $2.21 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.2x

Adjusted EPS

2.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 70.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.21, the base-case value is $49.11 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.02.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $208.85

Analyst Range $169.00 – $298.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 76%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $208.85 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples