AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Vistra Corp.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag VST as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Vistra Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for VST is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value VST?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from VST's most recent reported fundamentals.

VST - Vistra Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $221.13 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 29.5% above fair value

Current Price $162.33

Bear Case $102.58 36.8% downside ($102.58 - $162.33) / $162.33 = -36.8% $3.66 × 21x P/E

Fair Value $125.37 22.8% downside ($125.37 - $162.33) / $162.33 = -22.8% $3.66 × 26x P/E

Bull Case $148.16 8.7% downside ($148.16 - $162.33) / $162.33 = -8.7% $3.66 × 30x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

25.5x

Adjusted EPS

3.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 44.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $221.13 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.37 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 66%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $221.13 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples