Bank of Canada Survey Records Notable Rise in Inflation Expectations
Economists say the survey results could set the stage for a Bank of Canada interest-rate increase next week.
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U.S. indexes are green while Europe and much of Asia lag, and the split is more than a mood swing. The real drivers are index composition, rates tolerance, currency pressure, and energy exposure.
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Economists say the survey results could set the stage for a Bank of Canada interest-rate increase next week.
U.S. stocks were mostly higher as traders pared back bets that CoreWeave and other tech firms chasing the artificial-intelligence boom had overextended themselves and shifted focus to coming AI earnings.
U.S. equity markets faced significant selling pressure this week, with sharp declines in technology and growth-oriented stocks contrasting with strong gains across defensive, energy, and value sectors. The NASDAQ 100 ETF plunged 5.54%, while the S&P 500 ETF fell 1.98%, weighed down by a steep 7.70% decline in Technology.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds were rising again Monday after falling sharply last week.
The recent breakdown in semiconductor stocks signals a critical loss of support for equity indices tied to the AI trade. We see this as the end of the AI bubble.
Some credit markets became more selective, but stress hasn't broadened to all areas of the credit markets. Companies with stronger balance sheets and cash flows may continue to access capital.
The Recent tech pullback is driven by financing fears, not fundamental weakness, creating an opportunity to accumulate high-quality positions at reasonable valuations. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported 41.2% YoY revenue growth, with strong AI chip demand outpacing supply and robust Q4 guidance.
Implied volatilities were mixed across major asset classes last week as hotter-than-expected September CPI and PPI reports revived Fed rate-hike fears and collided with mounting worries about debt-funded AI spending. The VIX Index rose 5 pts w/w to 20, outpacing the move implied by skew by 3.5 pts; driven primarily by demand for downside convexity.
Stocks are being held back by economic fears . Rising yields would signal to investors that the bond market is pricing in strengthening growth expectations.
Some low beta stocks are more volatile on big down days for the market, including RTX, Charles Schwab, Union Pacific, Danaher, and Starbucks.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon identified five economic threats lurking beneath strong U.S. growth, from sticky inflation to rising interest rates.
One of the most important relationships in global markets has started to unravel over the past couple of weeks. Investors are scrambling to figure out what it might mean for the economy, and their portfolios.
Nine US companies, including Broadcom, Verizon and UnitedHealth, have formally objected to having their shares traded on the OKXICE venue. The SEC's innovation exemption gives issuers thirty days to say no, and an objection blocks that one venue rather than the idea itself.
The agricultural industry has already been dealing with a broad set of challenges brought on by the Iran war.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal now see higher bond yields for longer, firmer growth and eventual relief on inflation.
Higher mortgage rates are keep more buyers on the sidelines, forcing some home builders to cut prices.
What makes the move up in bonds, along with high crude prices, alarming is that last week's CPI and PPI reports both suggested inflation was hotter than expected. The weakness in SMH easily suggests that more weakness should be expected both in SMH and in the general market; however, the move in TLT last week may suggest that at least a temporary bottom in the bonds is in place as earnings season gets underway.
Aditya Bhave, BofA Securities senior US economist, says the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its October meeting, challenging the market's strong expectation that policymakers will hold. Bhave speaks about what he's looking for from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on "Bloomberg Surveillance.
Massive AI infrastructure investments, totaling over $10 trillion, are reshaping markets and creating both substantial opportunities and systemic risks. I see the next 2–3 years as a window for outsized returns in 'pick and shovel' AI suppliers—semiconductors, memory, storage, and networking.
I'm still a believer that the S&P 500 is the most buyable equity index right now, and I'm long both the cap-weighted and equal-weighted ETFs, SPY and RSP. Out of the 48 S&P 500 firms that have reported so far, 43 produced a beat; the 3.4% average surprise is under Q2's, although that doesn't mean much yet.