The 1-Minute Market Report, August 29, 2026
The major indices were higher last week but masked a weaker performance. The Mag 7 stocks gained 2.2%, pulling the S&P 500 and other indices higher for the week.
Market News
Venezuela's interim president says US energy deal will last 25 years
Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez said on Saturday that an energy agreement with the U.S. would remain in force for 25 years, target an increase in crude output to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and preserve the country's sovereignty over its natural resources.
US to take 35% stake in Venezuelan mogul Betancourt's oil venture, WSJ reports
The U.S. government plans to take a 35% passive stake in Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt's North American Blue Energy Partners, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people involved in negotiating the deal.
Harbor Human Capital Factor US Large Cap ETF Q2 2026 Commentary
During the second quarter of 2026, markets rebounded from the first quarter's weakness amid easing geopolitical tensions, resilient corporate earnings, and improving investor sentiment. During the second quarter, the Harbor Human Capital Factor US Large Cap ETF returned 11.82%. The top contributors were Marvell Technology, KLA, Cisco Systems, Lam Research, and lack of exposure to Exxon Mobil, which contributed as oil prices declined during the period.
Inside Trump's Plan to Give the Pentagon a Stake in Venezuela's Oil Riches
The deal caps months of secretive negotiations to give the U.S. rights to the some of the world's largest proven oil reserves.
Bessent says disorderly yen moves can destabilize global markets
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said disorderly moves in the yen could trigger "forced unwinds" of positions that risk destabilizing global markets and ultimately raising borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses.
Narrow Credit Spreads Make USHY A Hold (Rating Downgrade)
USHY is a simple high-yield bond ETF, with a solid 6.9% yield and broader performance track-record. Conditions for high-yield bonds seem broadly unfavorable. Credit spreads are nearing historical lows, implying weak risk-adjusted income and returns for USHY.
Clarus Corporation's Turnaround Is In Progress (Upgrade)
Clarus Corporation is upgraded from a Sell to a speculative Hold following a material improvement in profit guidance. CLAR's EBITDA guidance for the year increased to $12–$13 million, with operating cash flow projected at $12.5 million. Cost reductions, favorable product mix, and a $6.1 million tariff refund contributed to a swing from net loss to net profit.
The August Labor Market Report To Cement The September Fed Hike
The PMI Flash for August and the high-frequency data point to a stronger than expected August labor market report. Thus, the Fed will likely hike in September, with the second hike likely by December.
Kevin Warsh: Almost Like Powell From 2022
The S&P 500 (SP500) remains attractively valued, trading below 20x forward earnings with consensus 31% EPS growth projected for CY26. Despite a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole, I see market overreaction and maintain a bullish outlook for equities.
What Warsh Didn't Say Matters More
Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech signals less Fed forward guidance, increasing market uncertainty and likely volatility. With inflation running above target and robust profit growth, I see a higher probability of near-term rate hikes over cuts.
Jackson Hole's Price Stability Message And The Threat To Equities
Fed guidance is shifting away from signaling trades, increasing near-term uncertainty but fostering long-term market independence. Persistent inflation and 'higher for longer' rates challenge equity valuations, as risk-free yields surpass 5% and earnings yields lag lower.
Warsh Sets the Tone for Fed's Road Ahead
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech gave central bankers and investors greater clarity on how he views the economy and the Fed's path ahead, though questions remain about the timing and number of potential rate hikes. Bloomberg Odd Lots co-host Joe Weisenthal is on Bloomberg This Weekend to discuss the annual gathering, where monetary policy debates mix with informal conversations among some of the world's most influential central bankers.
Can the US Defy Fiscal Gravity?
David Bianco of DWS says long-term Treasury yields and real rates have climbed to some of their highest levels in nearly 25 years, but he argues inflation is not the main driver. The bigger issues are structural: US deficits above 6% of GDP, a rising total debt-to-GDP ratio, and the need to fund more borrowing domestically as foreign demand becomes less reliable.
Iran War Exposes Limits of US Military Endurance
Six months into the US conflict with Iran, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about 40% of prewar levels, but risks remain as the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained and the Navy faces mounting pressure on personnel, equipment and finances. Bloomberg News Economic Statecraft Lead Chris Kennedy and Bloomberg News Defense Reporter Jen Judson join hosts Christina Ruffini and Bailey Lipschultz on Bloomberg This Weekend and discuss the strain on US military readiness and why a new US deal involving Venezuelan oil fields is unlikely to deliver a significant near-term boost to global supply.
Morningstar: 15% Recovery With Room To Climb Higher
Morningstar remains attractively valued, trading at a 33% discount to a $289 fair value estimate, with a “Buy” rating reaffirmed. MORN's Q2 2026 results showed 9.6% revenue growth, 29.2% EPS growth, and a 280-basis-point margin expansion, driven by strong segment performance and accretive acquisitions. Consensus forecasts 16.7% annual EPS growth through 2028, supporting expectations for double-digit dividend increases and robust long-term total returns.
Where are all the new jobs? Hiring slows again — and it probably won't speed up soon.
The U.S. labor market seemed to be on upswing after a surge in new employment early this year — but a summer slowdown in hiring and fewer help-wanted ads suggest it won't get any easier to find a job.
Warsh Says Fed Must Act if Inflation Stays High
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled the central bank is prepared to act if inflation fails to move clearly and quickly toward its 2% target, while describing the broader US economy as strong. On Bloomberg This Weekend Schwab Center Head of Macro Research & Strategy Kevin Gordon and Allsprings Global Investments Head of Equity Investments Ann Miletti say the remarks provided greater clarity on the Fed's approach, with upcoming inflation data likely to be critical to whether policymakers raise rates in September.
Nova: AI's Metrology Tollbooth Is Becoming A Multi-Engine Compounder
Nova earns a buy rating, driven by its diversified, multi-physics metrology platform and strong execution across logic, packaging, and chemical markets. Advanced packaging now contributes approximately 25% of product revenue, validating NVMI's strategic pivot and supporting record sales and earnings growth. My model projects $1.27B revenue and over $12.50 EPS next year, with 30% advanced packaging growth and continued margin strength at 33%.
Corporate earnings have been growing at a blistering pace. Here's why that's not likely to last.
That's because soaring growth rates — such as those seen in recent quarters — are more often than not followed by below-average growth rates, and vice versa. We therefore should resist the temptation to extrapolate the blazingly fast earnings growth of recent quarters into the indefinite future.
