AeroVironment: The Market Is Pricing In Too Much Acquisition Risk
AeroVironment is transforming from a tactical drone maker into a full-spectrum defense technology platform, integrating autonomy, software, and counter-UAS capabilities. Despite a $265M GAAP net loss driven by a $240.7M goodwill impairment, AVAV's organic revenue grew 26% and adjusted EBITDA reached $286.1M in FY2026. I rate AVAV a Buy, targeting $218–$225 per share, based on continued double-digit growth, margin expansion toward 17%, and successful execution of programs like LOCUST and P550.