U.S Stock Futures, Treasurys Weaken as Brent Nears $100
U.S. markets wobbled as higher oil prices dragged sentiment before investors return from the Labor Day weekend.
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The cleanest signal into macro week isn’t in U.S. indices. It’s the widening gap between a surging Japan, a softer Hong Kong, and a hesitant U.S. tape as FX and rates do the talking.
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U.S. markets wobbled as higher oil prices dragged sentiment before investors return from the Labor Day weekend.
ICOP, the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF, is rated a Buy as copper's multidecade bull market continues, supported by robust technical and fundamental trends. ICOP outperformed copper futures in 2026, rising 29.3% YTD versus copper's 16–18% gains, driven by mining companies' expanding profit margins. Supply-demand deficits, green energy, AI data center growth, and stagnant production underpin copper's bullish outlook, with China's demand a key variable.
Concerns over AI sector's 'circular financing' are overstated; such practices are common and risk-mitigating across mature industries. I recommend holding S&P 500 ETFs (SPY, IVV, VOO) and advocate diversification, particularly into Small Cap and Value stocks.
Markets can withstand a 25 basis-point interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve, according to Marathon Asset Management CEO Bruce Richards. "The consumer is doing well, corporate earnings are doing well, the economy is doing well," Richards says on Bloomberg Television.
Mistral AI raises €3bn at a valuation of more than €21bn. The fund-raising round is among Europe's largest ever.
Futures on the Dow were significantly worse than the S&P 500 because of a cardiovascular drug's late-stage setback.
Treasury yields moved higher as investors look ahead to more key economic data releases this week.
French AI startup Mistral has raised €3 billion in a series D funding round, putting the company's valuation at more than €21 billion. The round was led by Samsung Electronics, alongside the EU-backed 'Scaleup Europe Fund' and U.S.-based PSG Equity.
Natural Resource Partners offers a capital-light, royalty-based minerals business with no production risk and minimal capital requirements. NRP is positioned to deliver a 10%+ FCF yield as debt repayment completes, with management committed to significant distributions and buybacks beginning November 2026. Metallurgical coal price recovery and contract resets are expected to drive FCF growth, while thermal coal faces secular decline and soda ash remains challenged.
I maintain a 'buy' on IEF and TLT, favoring the longer end as capital flows into duration amid skepticism about economic strength and inflation stickiness. Recent data suggest a cooling economy, with ISM manufacturing PMI and new orders declining, while inflation is likely to surprise to the downside as AI-driven cost savings emerge.
Treasury yields edge lower in Asian trade, shrugging off a slight increase in oil prices, as investors wait for Friday's CPI reading.
Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust earns a Buy rating with a $110 price target, reflecting a constructive outlook on EUR/USD. I expect US inflation to cool and the Fed to pause hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential and supporting FXE upside. FXE offers direct EUR/USD exposure, uncorrelated to equities, with a straightforward structure and a 0.40% expense ratio.
The last time Japan's central bank lifted its main policy rate half a percentage point, prices were so hot the land the Imperial Palace sat on was said to be worth more than the combined real estate of California.
As diesel prices hit a record and energy crack spreads surge, Jeff Currie from Abaxx Technologies & founder of Real Macro draws attention to the separation between paper prices of crude oil, and soaring prices of refined products like gasoline and diesel. He says that while the WTI and Brent contracts are still below $100 a barrel, real prices have already essentially hit warning levels.
China's car exports stayed in high gear in August as automakers led by BYD shipped a record number of vehicles overseas, in sharp contrast to a sluggish domestic market, where sales fell for the 11th month in a row.
Oil prices remain elevated as Middle East supply risks support WTI near $93 and push Brent toward the key $100–$102 resistance zone.
Regional markets lacked cues given Monday's Labor Day holiday, and investors are now looking to U.S. consumer inflation data.
The Fed and inflation are back in focus as investors face down an often bumpy stretch for markets.
Japanese stocks were lower as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and the Fed policy persists.
The S&P 500 is trading in sync with shifting Fed rate hike odds, with technical levels like 7620 proving pivotal. September's CPI release is the key catalyst; a hotter print could trigger sharp downside, while a soft print may drive new highs.