Opinion | The U.S. Tariff Attack on U.S. Biotech
New Trump border taxes arrive Tuesday and are a gift to Xi Jinping.
Market News
Stock Futures to Begin Trading After Trump Rejects Iran's Deal
The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told NBC News that the president would leave all options on the table with respect to Iran.
S&P 500: Q4 Outlook - Danger And Opportunity (Technical Analysis)
The S&P 500 showed resilience last week, closing higher despite negative seasonality and bond market weakness. Q4 seasonality historically favors equities, but similarities to 2018's Trump Midterm year and rising yields warrant caution.
Wall Street Brunch: AI Safety Crunch Time
AI developments dominate the week, with high-level meetings and OpenAI's DevDay set to spotlight regulatory and safety concerns. OpenAI pauses AI model training after agent misalignment incidents, raising questions about safeguards ahead of the GPT-6 Cyber launch.
Unusual Machines: Price Correction Allows Us To Accumulate At Better Prices
Unusual Machines delivered 687% y/y revenue growth to $16.72M, with robust demand and a strong cash position fueling expansion. UMAC's gross margin reached $5.8M (34.7%), while operating expenses surged as headcount expanded to over 250, highlighting the need for continued top-line acceleration. The company is poised to benefit from the $1.1B drone dominance program, with management preparing for a significant influx of orders starting September.
China weighs allowing ByteDance, Alibaba to buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports
The Chinese government has signaled it could allow some domestic companies like ByteDance and Alibaba to buy a new Nvidia chip built for high-end professional computers, The Information reported on Sunday, citing two people familiar with the matter.
The Week Ahead: Core PCE, Payrolls and Fed Speakers Put Stocks to the Test
Core PCE and payrolls lead the calendar as 22 Fed appearances, Nike and Progress Software earnings test rate-hike expectations and support across major indexes.
An Exciting Capital-Light Cash Machine With A 5.2% Yield: OTC Markets
OTC Markets Group Inc. is more than just a simple listing business, generating ~$121 million in revenue in FY2025 across multiple segments built to monetize the same underlying securities. The OTCM business has shown that it can grow even without a significant growth in public market listings, through pricing increases, moving companies to higher-value tiers, and selling additional services. OTCM's capital-light, recurring-revenue model generates substantial cash (with $48 million of operating cash flow in FY2025), supporting share repurchases and recurring special dividend in addition to quarterly dividends.
AI Stocks May Be Whistling Past The Graveyard
Credit default swaps for major tech names like Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Meta are widening. Broadcom and Oracle stocks have declined in line with rising CDS.
Barings BDC Outperformed My Expectations (Rating Upgrade)
BBDC is upgraded to a buy, reflecting strong financials and resilience versus BDC peers. BBDC boasts robust dividend coverage at 108%, stable NAV with only a 2.1% annual drop, and healthy non-accruals below 1%. I expect BBDC's 12% yield to remain sustainable, supported by durable NII and substantial spillover income.
Inflation Keeps Pressure on the Fed
Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta tells Bloomberg This Weekend that the US labor market has stabilized while persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace than investors currently expect. Speaking with hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini, Dutta says rising food and energy costs risk pushing inflation expectations higher and argues inflation remains the more pressing side of the Fed's dual mandate.
Data Center Boom Faces Wall Street Skepticism
New York Times finance reporter Maureen Farrell tells Bloomberg This Weekend that Wall Street is growing more skeptical of the AI data center boom as rising interest rates, local opposition and permitting delays add uncertainty and costs to projects. Speaking with hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini, Farrell says trillions of dollars in financing may require tapping public markets, but investor resistance is making planned data center IPOs harder and potentially more expensive to complete.
Stargate's First Scare: A Warning For The AI Buildout
Oracle reportedly issued a force majeure notice related to potential power-delivery issues at Project Jupiter, although Oracle said the project remains on schedule. Project Jupiter is a large New Mexico AI data center campus developed by STACK Infrastructure (owned by Blue Owl), as part of the Stargate buildout supporting OpenAI.
Runaway Rates
U.S. equities advanced despite another historic bond selloff, as strong economic data, hawkish Fed commentary, and weak Treasury demand pushed yields to multi-decade highs while AI optimism supported mega-caps again. The rate surge broadened across the curve: the 2-Year reached its highest since May 2024, the 10-Year neared 2007 highs, and the 30-Year approached two-decade highs as bond selling intensified. Market breadth remained unusually narrow, with roughly three-quarters of S&P 500 constituents below their 50-day moving averages even as the headline index finished within 1% of record highs this week.
Look closer, and Wall Street's rally is showing cracks
Major stock indexes hovering near records are masking a market straining under elevated oil prices, rising Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve bracing for additional interest-rate hikes.
Trump Rejects Iran Plan to Reopen Hormuz
Bloomberg News Middle East reporter Dan Williams and Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone are on Bloomberg This Weekend discussing President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations, as the conflict continues to strain global energy markets. They tell hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini that economic pressure could shape the next phase of diplomacy, while rising fuel costs and shifting US supply and Chinese demand remain critical factors for oil prices.
Europe Pays For America's Rates, America Keeps The Growth
US Treasury yields rose sharply in September, driven by real rates rather than inflation expectations, reflecting confidence in the Fed's strategy. America's investment boom, especially in tech, is fueling economic growth and higher rates, while Europe lags with minimal investment growth.
At 5%, I'm Rethinking Every Stock I Own
With 10-year Treasury yields above 5%, investors must rigorously reassess stock holdings vs. bonds, as the risk-free rate now offers real competition.
Why the upcoming jobs report could send 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surging
Another hot jobs report could also pressure the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in October.
Wall Street Week Ahead
Wall Street heads into the new quarter with the September jobs report set to provide the week's biggest test for markets, while investors will also get a fresh inflation reading and another busy stretch for artificial intelligence.
