September Jobs Data Backs An October Hold: I See A Problem
I'll be blunt. Any economic data release, like the soft September employment report, that supports an October interest rate hold could be bearish for stocks.
Market News
Macro Conditions May Mean A Period Of No Growth Lies Ahead
Macroeconomic headwinds, including rising inflation and potential recession, may limit oil and gas companies' distribution growth relative to inflation. Industry uncertainty and demand destruction in chemicals and refining are curbing capital allocation and production growth, impacting midstream volume outlook.
5 Reasons Yields Could Stay High: The Bull Market Isn't Over
Treasury yields may stay elevated because several forces are hitting the bond market at once: heavy capital demand, persistent inflation, changing Treasury buyers, and possible forced selling. I do not think higher yields automatically end the equity bull market.
Leveraged ETF Watchlist For October, Focus On UDOW
The ProShares UltraPro Dow30 ETF targets 3x daily Dow Jones returns but suffers from negative drift over time. Since inception, UDOW has delivered 22.3% annualized returns, with an 80% max drawdown and about a 2x annualized leverage factor. UDOW's average 12-month drift is -2.51%, with performance highly path-dependent and vulnerable to volatility and bear markets.
Kimbell Royalty Partners: A Cushion Big Enough For A Full Oil Unwind
Kimbell Royalty Partners offers a compelling total return case, even if oil prices revert to pre-Iran crisis levels. KRP's recent distribution surge is driven by oil prices, not production growth, with unit prices showing restraint and not reflecting a new oil price normal. My Buy rating is anchored in KRP's high single-digit yield, which remains attractive even under conservative oil price scenarios.
Inflation's Next Wave? A Critical U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Just Surged 10% Higher
Factory purchasing managers paid sharply more for materials in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Manufacturing Prices Paid Index rose from 71.1 to 77.9, a one-month gain of about 9.
G7 Fuel Release Offers Short Term Price Relief
Bloomberg Economics economic statecraft lead Chris Kennedy tells Bloomberg This Weekend that the G7's coordinated release of up to 100 million barrels of oil and fuel could provide near-term relief from record diesel prices, but will not resolve supply constraints tied to the Iran war and attacks on Russian refining capacity. Speaking with hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini, Kennedy says a US diesel export ban could create unintended consequences for domestic and global fuel markets, while high diesel costs are adding economic pressure in states with competitive midterm races -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?
Jobless Claims Near a 57-Year Low, but Companies Still Aren't Hiring
Fewer Americans filed new unemployment claims last week than in almost any week in more than half a century. Initial claims fell to 197,000 for the week ended September 26, the lowest since 1969, according to the Labor Department.
High interest rates are foreclosing on the American home remodeling dream
Homeowners locked into 2-3% mortgages are staying put rather than refinancing, but with HELOCs now too expensive to tap, many are stuck unable to afford the very upgrades that would make staying worthwhile. Big-ticket item purchases have fallen sharply at Lowe's and Home Depot.
The U.S. jobs market just took a turn for the worse. Or did it?
The bottom didn't drop out of the labor market after a poor September U.S. jobs report. But what it did show is hiring is slow and it's a tough time to find work.
Beware, Bears: Chipmakers Are Still Lubricating The AI Financing Wheel
In my book, being too early is the same as being dead wrong. As a high-risk speculator, timing matters more than direction.
Fire, smoke seen near Aramco facility in Riyadh, witness says
A large plume of smoke and fire was seen rising in the vicinity of an Aramco facility in Riyadh on Saturday, a witness told Reuters.
One Trade, Two Markets, One Hidden Correction
The S&P 500 index is near all-time highs, but the median stock is 16% below its own ATH, with 78% in correction territory. Market breadth has deteriorated sharply; only 26% of S&P 500 constituents rose in September, while index gains are driven by a handful of large-cap stocks.
As Treasury yields touch generational highs, investors brace for the market fallout
The surge in bond yields to generational highs has investors around the world watching and worrying about what could crack, spiral or leave a trail of carnage in its path.
What Moved Markets This Week
Wall Street ended the week on a mixed note as cooler-than-expected September jobs data cut Fed rate-hike odds even as Treasury yields climbed, with the 30-year hitting its highest level in decades.
Gold Royalty: 6x Production Growth By 2030
Gold Royalty is a small-cap gold royalty company with exceptional growth potential, targeting 6x production by 2030. GROY's portfolio boasts over 250 royalties, low counterparty risk, and recent aggressive acquisitions, with 92% gold exposure and top-tier operators. 2026 guidance is 7,500–9,300 GEOs; Q2 results showed 76% revenue growth, EBITDA doubling, and a debt-free balance sheet.
Meet the Gen-Z High Rollers Dominating the Prediction Markets
Upstart trading firms loom large on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. They are starting to raise capital.
Snap: You Don't Need An Advertising Recovery To Make Money
Snap Inc. is transitioning to self-funded growth, driven by rapid subscription expansion and improving free cash flow generation. SNAP's advertising business shows early signs of pricing power recovery, but the investment thesis relies on subscription growth and operating leverage, not ad acceleration. Subscription revenue reached $316.5M in Q2 2026, up 84.7% YoY, with significant room for penetration and high incremental margins supporting robust free cash flow.
Weekly Commentary: Significant Step For Crisis Dynamics
Nvidia surged 3.9% this week, trading early Friday at record highs. With an unfolding crisis of confidence in French debt, intensifying euroland instability will not be easily managed.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: 35,000 in View as Weak Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets
Nasdaq 100's bullish breakout puts 35,000 in view, but high Treasury yields and Trump's tariff plans could slow the advance.
