Coal Makes a Comeback, Fueled by War in the Middle East
Countries are returning to the highly polluting but reliable source of power after the Iran war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.
Market News
Kevin Warsh's first challenge as Fed Chair is to fight inflation — while keeping Trump happy
Ben Bernanke's Fed pulled off a miracle during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. What might Kevin Warsh be forced to pull out of his hat as the central bank's new boss?
AI Chip Mania Sows Seeds of Its Own Destruction
Investors already factor in cyclicality in the chip industry. The bad news is that they've frequently gotten their assessments wrong.
A wartime surge in energy prices is slamming consumers while boosting investors, widening a divide in the U.S. economy
A wartime price surge is slamming consumers while boosting investors.
China Indicates Tariffs Were Discussed at Trump Summit
China's Ministry of Commerce said Saturday that the countries had struck a preliminary agreement to reduce some tariffs, seemingly contradicting statements by President Trump
Stock Gains Without All the Taxes? How the Hottest Trade on Wall Street Works
The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down.
Market Leadership Is Narrow, Increasing Summer Risk
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,408.50, surrendering the historic 7,500 level it briefly breached Thursday and ending the week with a gain of just 0.3%. That Thursday intraday high of 7,517 now looks like a blow-off signal rather than a launching pad.
A look back at Jerome Powell's 8 year legacy of purple ties and good afternoons. 👔
A look back at Jerome Powell's 8 year legacy of purple ties and good afternoons. 👔
Markets Are Behaving Like Schrödinger's Cat
The S&P 500 (SP500) reached all-time highs, driven by robust CY26 EPS growth estimates and liquidity from the Fed's expanding balance sheet. Rising energy prices, escalating geopolitical risks, and hot CPI/PPI prints have triggered inflation concerns and a sharp increase in long-term bond yields just this week.
China signals tariff cuts, advances in farm market access after Trump-Xi summit
China and the United States have agreed to expand agricultural trade through tariff reductions and tackle non-tariff barriers and market access issues, China's commerce ministry said on Saturday after this week's summit in Beijing.
The bond market is flashing a warning over Iran. A veteran of energy geopolitics explains the risk
Concerns about energy-driven inflation has prompted a sell-off in some long-term government bonds. That situation has some market experts worried.
Bond Traders Are Pricing The Worse Case
The market has finally come around to my no-more-cuts view. Implied SOFR is now above the Fed Funds rate for the first time in years.
For better or worse, investors are living through Trump's stock market. Here's why
Ever since President Donald Trump has reentered the White House, the market has suffered rapid declines of meaningful size. Yet, the market has been more successful under the second Trump term than during other presidencies in recovering quicker than historical trends, data from CFRA Research shows.
Kevin Warsh comes into the Fed facing a big 'family fight' over cutting interest rates
If new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is still itching for a "good family fight" over monetary policy, he is likely to get one if he sticks to his guns on interest rate cuts. Those who have watched Warsh over the years, from his prior stint as a Fed governor through his high-profile public disagreements with Fed policy since, expect him to put up strong arguments.
The 1-Minute Market Report, May 17, 2026
The S&P 500 notched its seventh consecutive weekly gain, entering elite historical territory with strong momentum and minimal drawdowns. Market flows favored large cap growth, energy, commodities, and cybersecurity, while investors rotated out of small caps, value, REITs, and non-U.S. equities.
Is This The Start Of The Market Crash? Nah, Don't Be Fooled
The S&P 500's earnings outlook remains robust, with Q4 EPS growth estimates exceeding 23% and continued upward revisions. AI-driven job losses are nuanced, with augmentation offsetting disruption; widespread employment crises or a software apocalypse are overstated.
High gas prices and inflation are stressing people out — but the economy will be fine as long as they keep spending
Nearly three months into the Iran war, Americans are still spending plenty of money to keep the economy on the up and up.
The Shiller P/E Is Broken, And You Need To Stop Reasoning In Fiat Terms
The S&P 500 appears expensive by traditional P/E ratios, but accounting changes and economic shifts render historical comparisons misleading. Adjusting for stock-based compensation, R&D capitalization, and intangible amortization, the S&P 500 P/E drops from ~29x to ~22–23x—above average, but not at dotcom bubble levels.
I Calcuated The Impact Of $1 Of AI Capex (One Narrative Is Challanged)
I present a multiplier framework to evaluate the economic productivity of hyperscaler AI capex across the entire supply chain. Hyperscalers have increased AI-focused capex to $725B, with 75% estimated as AI-specific, sparking questions about ecosystem-wide returns.
Small caps are still riding high despite latest setback. But more trouble could lie ahead.
The small-cap Russell 2000 led U.S. stocks lower on Friday — yet it has outperformed all major indexes except the Nasdaq in 2026.
