AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag UPST as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for UPST is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value UPST?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from UPST's most recent reported fundamentals.

UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $38.29 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 85.7% above fair value

Current Price $28.56

Bear Case $10.77 62.3% downside ($10.77 - $28.56) / $28.56 = -62.3% ROTCE 5.6% → 0.30x TBV

Fair Value $15.38 46.2% downside ($15.38 - $28.56) / $28.56 = -46.2% ROTCE 7.4% → 0.34x TBV

Bull Case $19.99 30.0% downside ($19.99 - $28.56) / $28.56 = -30.0% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

7.4%

Cost of Equity

14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.4%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.78x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.29 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

⚠ Return on equity (7.4%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $38.29 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly