South Plains Financial, Inc. logo SPFI - South Plains Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $46.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
UPSIDE: 10.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.3% below fair value
Current Price $40.91
Bear Case $51.83 26.7% upside ($51.83 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 26.7% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.78x TBV
Fair Value $82.24 101.0% upside ($82.24 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 101.0% ROTCE 12.4% → 2.82x TBV
Bull Case $100.49 145.6% upside ($100.49 - $40.91) / $40.91 = 145.6% ROTCE 14.2% → 3.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.41x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.82x on $29.11 tangible book, implying $82.24 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly