South Plains Financial, Inc. logo SPFI - South Plains Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $53.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
UPSIDE: 15.76%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.0% below fair value
Current Price $42.76
Bear Case $53.94 26.1% upside ($53.94 - $42.76) / $42.76 = 26.1% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.85x TBV
Fair Value $85.59 100.2% upside ($85.59 - $42.76) / $42.76 = 100.2% ROTCE 12.4% → 2.94x TBV
Bull Case $104.57 144.6% upside ($104.57 - $42.76) / $42.76 = 144.6% ROTCE 14.2% → 3.59x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.47x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.94x on $29.11 tangible book, implying $85.59 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly