SCI - Service Corporation International
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$105.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$105.00
LOW:
$105.00
MEDIAN:
$105.00
CONSENSUS:
$105.00
UPSIDE:
25.96%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.8$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.9x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.80, the base-case value is $57.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $248.14.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$105.00
Analyst Range
$105.00 – $105.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $248.14 (above our primary estimate by 335%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples