Service Corporation International logo SCI - Service Corporation International

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $105.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $105.00
UPSIDE: 25.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 46.2% above fair value
Current Price $83.36
Bear Case $45.60 45.3% downside ($45.60 - $83.36) / $83.36 = -45.3% $3.80 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $57.00 31.6% downside ($57.00 - $83.36) / $83.36 = -31.6% $3.80 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $68.40 17.9% downside ($68.40 - $83.36) / $83.36 = -17.9% $3.80 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.80, the base-case value is $57.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $248.14.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $105.00
Analyst Range $105.00 – $105.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 46%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $248.14 (above our primary estimate by 335%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples