Service Corporation International logo SCI - Service Corporation International

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $93.00
LOW: $93.00
MEDIAN: $93.00
CONSENSUS: $93.00
UPSIDE: 20.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.5% above fair value
Current Price $77.39
Bear Case $51.36 33.6% downside ($51.36 - $77.39) / $77.39 = -33.6% $3.80 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $64.20 17.0% downside ($64.20 - $77.39) / $77.39 = -17.0% $3.80 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $77.04 0.5% downside ($77.04 - $77.39) / $77.39 = -0.5% $3.80 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.8$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.20 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $185.63 (above our primary estimate by 226%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $93.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples