Regional Management Corp. logo RM - Regional Management Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 89.6% below fair value
Current Price $41.66
Bear Case $276.81 564.5% upside ($276.81 - $41.66) / $41.66 = 564.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $400.57 861.5% upside ($400.57 - $41.66) / $41.66 = 861.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $516.38 1139.5% upside ($516.38 - $41.66) / $41.66 = 1139.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 7.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) -5.4% vs our 8.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $400.57 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions