Prudential Financial, Inc. logo PRU - Prudential Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 25
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $105.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $128.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $109.00
CONSENSUS: $105.22
DOWNSIDE: 13.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.6% below fair value
Current Price $122.02
Bear Case $94.50 22.6% downside ($94.50 - $122.02) / $122.02 = -22.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.33x TBV
Fair Value $135.00 10.6% upside ($135.00 - $122.02) / $122.02 = 10.6% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $175.50 43.8% upside ($175.50 - $122.02) / $122.02 = 43.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

39.6%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (39.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.69x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 39.6% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $26.03 tangible book, implying $135.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $101.47.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (37 analysts) $105.22
Analyst Range $87.00 – $128.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.22 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly