PRU - Prudential Financial, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$105.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$128.00
LOW:
$87.00
MEDIAN:
$108.00
CONSENSUS:
$105.33
DOWNSIDE:
8.50%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
39.6%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (39.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.4x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 39.6% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $26.18 tangible book, implying $135.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $99.44.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$105.33
Analyst Range
$87.00 – $128.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $99.44 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.33 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly