Paysign, Inc. logo PAYS - Paysign, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 1
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $9.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.6% below fair value
Current Price $9.06
Bear Case $16.01 76.7% upside ($16.01 - $9.06) / $9.06 = 76.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $26.32 190.5% upside ($26.32 - $9.06) / $9.06 = 190.5% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $38.27 322.4% upside ($38.27 - $9.06) / $9.06 = 322.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 10.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 0.0% vs our 16.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.32 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 241% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions