OFG Bancorp logo OFG - OFG Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.50
DOWNSIDE: 1.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.6% below fair value
Current Price $45.05
Bear Case $50.50 12.1% upside ($50.50 - $45.05) / $45.05 = 12.1% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.82x TBV
Fair Value $75.88 68.4% upside ($75.88 - $45.05) / $45.05 = 68.4% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.73x TBV
Bull Case $91.12 102.3% upside ($91.12 - $45.05) / $45.05 = 102.3% ROTCE 18.2% → 3.28x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.47x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.88 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $44.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 88% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly