AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies NBT Bancorp Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag NBTB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is NBT Bancorp Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for NBTB comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value NBTB?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. NBTB was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from NBTB's most recent reported fundamentals.

NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $56.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 30.2% below fair value

Current Price $51.55

Bear Case $46.42 9.9% downside ($46.42 - $51.55) / $51.55 = -9.9% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.74x TBV

Fair Value $73.89 43.3% upside ($73.89 - $51.55) / $51.55 = 43.3% ROTCE 12.2% → 2.77x TBV

Bull Case $90.36 75.3% upside ($90.36 - $51.55) / $51.55 = 75.3% ROTCE 14.0% → 3.39x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

12.2%

Cost of Equity

7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.94x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.2% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.77x on $26.63 tangible book, implying $73.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $135.44.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $56.67

Analyst Range $55.00 – $59.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $135.44 (83% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $56.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly