AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag LOCO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for LOCO comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value LOCO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. LOCO was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from LOCO's most recent reported fundamentals.

LOCO - El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $19.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 1.6% below fair value

Current Price $15.06

Bear Case $12.60 16.3% downside ($12.60 - $15.06) / $15.06 = -16.3% $0.90 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $15.30 1.6% upside ($15.30 - $15.06) / $15.06 = 1.6% $0.90 × 17x P/E

Bull Case $18.00 19.5% upside ($18.00 - $15.06) / $15.06 = 19.5% $0.90 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

17.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.90, the base-case value is $15.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $19.50

Analyst Range $17.00 – $22.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples