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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $176.70 DETAILS
HIGH: $240.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $170.00
CONSENSUS: $176.70
UPSIDE: 10.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.7% below fair value
Current Price $160.01
Bear Case $169.67 6.0% upside ($169.67 - $160.01) / $160.01 = 6.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $201.66 26.0% upside ($201.66 - $160.01) / $160.01 = 26.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $229.29 43.3% upside ($229.29 - $160.01) / $160.01 = 43.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 11.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $176.70 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.66 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions