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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $240.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $167.00
CONSENSUS: $173.10
UPSIDE: 31.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.2% below fair value
Current Price $132.10
Bear Case $168.91 27.9% upside ($168.91 - $132.10) / $132.10 = 27.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $200.76 52.0% upside ($200.76 - $132.10) / $132.10 = 52.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $228.27 72.8% upside ($228.27 - $132.10) / $132.10 = 72.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 10.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) -0.3% vs our 5.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.10 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $200.76 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions