IT - Gartner, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$168.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$206.00
LOW:
$120.00
MEDIAN:
$164.00
CONSENSUS:
$168.50
DOWNSIDE:
9.61%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
80% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
5.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
12.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.7%
vs our 5.2% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $228.99 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$168.50
Analyst Range
$120.00 – $206.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $168.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions