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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $168.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $206.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $164.00
CONSENSUS: $168.50
DOWNSIDE: 9.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.6% below fair value
Current Price $186.42
Bear Case $193.02 3.5% upside ($193.02 - $186.42) / $186.42 = 3.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $228.99 22.8% upside ($228.99 - $186.42) / $186.42 = 22.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $260.05 39.5% upside ($260.05 - $186.42) / $186.42 = 39.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 12.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.7% vs our 5.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $228.99 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $168.50
Analyst Range $120.00 – $206.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $168.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions