AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HOG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HOG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HOG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HOG's most recent reported fundamentals.

HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $24.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 6.7% above fair value

Current Price $25.39

Bear Case $17.40 31.5% downside ($17.40 - $25.39) / $25.39 = -31.5% $4.19 × 4x + net cash

Fair Value $23.79 6.3% downside ($23.79 - $25.39) / $25.39 = -6.3% $4.19 × 6x + net cash

Bull Case $30.17 18.8% upside ($30.17 - $25.39) / $25.39 = 18.8% $4.19 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

5.5x

Normalized EPS

4.19$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.19)

Implied Market Multiple 6.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.67 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.79 per share.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing