AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Harley-Davidson, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HOG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HOG comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HOG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HOG was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from HOG's most recent reported fundamentals.

HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $28.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 32.8% below fair value

Current Price $26.76

Bear Case $29.33 9.6% upside ($29.33 - $26.76) / $26.76 = 9.6% $4.19 × 7x

Fair Value $39.81 48.7% upside ($39.81 - $26.76) / $26.76 = 48.7% $4.19 × 10x

Bull Case $50.28 87.9% upside ($50.28 - $26.76) / $26.76 = 87.9% $4.19 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

4.19$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.19)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.19 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $39.81 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.9x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $28.50

Analyst Range $17.00 – $33.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 40%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $28.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing