Harley-Davidson, Inc. logo HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 23
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $23.60
DOWNSIDE: 0.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.1% above fair value
Current Price $23.73
Bear Case $17.16 27.7% downside ($17.16 - $23.73) / $23.73 = -27.7% $4.19 × 4x + net cash
Fair Value $23.47 1.1% downside ($23.47 - $23.73) / $23.73 = -1.1% $4.19 × 6x + net cash
Bull Case $29.76 25.4% upside ($29.76 - $23.73) / $23.73 = 25.4% $4.19 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

5.5x
4.19$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.19)

Implied Market Multiple 5.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.60 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.47 per share.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing