AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag HGV as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HGV comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value HGV?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. HGV was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from HGV's most recent reported fundamentals.

HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $53.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 60% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 11.9% above fair value

Current Price $43.81

Bear Case $31.32 28.5% downside ($31.32 - $43.81) / $43.81 = -28.5% $1.74 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $39.15 10.6% downside ($39.15 - $43.81) / $43.81 = -10.6% $1.74 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $46.98 7.2% upside ($46.98 - $43.81) / $43.81 = 7.2% $1.74 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

1.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 25.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $39.15 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $53.00

Analyst Range $46.00 – $74.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 96%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples