W.W. Grainger, Inc. logo GWW - W.W. Grainger, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 24
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,247.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,365.00
LOW: $1,081.00
MEDIAN: $1,300.00
CONSENSUS: $1,247.71
DOWNSIDE: 0.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 75.8% above fair value
Current Price $1247.79
Bear Case $529.61 57.6% downside ($529.61 - $1,247.79) / $1,247.79 = -57.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $709.73 43.1% downside ($709.73 - $1,247.79) / $1,247.79 = -43.1% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $880.88 29.4% downside ($880.88 - $1,247.79) / $1,247.79 = -29.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 47.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1247.71 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $709.73 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1247.71 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions