GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$58.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$67.00
LOW:
$52.00
MEDIAN:
$56.50
CONSENSUS:
$58.50
UPSIDE:
33.05%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
0.0%
12.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.0%) vs. cost of equity (12.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.50 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.0%) is below the minimum investors require (12.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly