Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. logo GNTY - Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.

Inactive Ticker GNTY is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
DOWNSIDE: 28.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.2% below fair value
Current Price $48.75
Bear Case $34.99 28.2% downside ($34.99 - $48.75) / $48.75 = -28.2% ROTCE 8.3% → 1.53x TBV
Fair Value $57.52 18.0% upside ($57.52 - $48.75) / $48.75 = 18.0% ROTCE 11.1% → 2.51x TBV
Bull Case $71.05 45.7% upside ($71.05 - $48.75) / $48.75 = 45.7% ROTCE 12.7% → 3.10x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.94x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.52 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly