Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. logo FBIN - Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 9
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $64.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $52.57
UPSIDE: 39.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.0% below fair value
Current Price $37.65
Bear Case $41.24 9.5% upside ($41.24 - $37.65) / $37.65 = 9.5% $3.83 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $56.23 49.3% upside ($56.23 - $37.65) / $37.65 = 49.3% $3.83 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $71.22 89.2% upside ($71.22 - $37.65) / $37.65 = 89.2% $3.83 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.83$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.83)

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.57 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.23 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing