FBIN - Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$52.57
DETAILS
HIGH:
$64.00
LOW:
$41.00
MEDIAN:
$50.00
CONSENSUS:
$52.57
UPSIDE:
39.63%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
3.83$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.83)
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.57 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.23 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing