Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. logo FBIN - Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $56.75
UPSIDE: 9.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $51.61
Bear Case $42.00 18.6% downside ($42.00 - $51.61) / $51.61 = -18.6% $3.83 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $57.28 11.0% upside ($57.28 - $51.61) / $51.61 = 11.0% $3.83 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $72.55 40.6% upside ($72.55 - $51.61) / $51.61 = 40.6% $3.83 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.83$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.83)

Implied Market Multiple 13.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.75 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.28 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing