ECPG - Encore Capital Group, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$85.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$100.00
LOW:
$70.00
MEDIAN:
$85.00
CONSENSUS:
$85.00
UPSIDE:
5.99%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
58.3%
11.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (58.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.9x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $144.34 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $85.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly