DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. logo DKS - DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 38
HOLD 26
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $268.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $224.00
MEDIAN: $270.00
CONSENSUS: $268.00
UPSIDE: 28.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 61.2% above fair value
Current Price $208.89
Bear Case $45.03 78.4% downside ($45.03 - $208.89) / $208.89 = -78.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $129.58 38.0% downside ($129.58 - $208.89) / $208.89 = -38.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $214.53 2.7% upside ($214.53 - $208.89) / $208.89 = 2.7% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 50.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.3% vs our 10.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $268.00 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $129.58 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $268.00 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions