DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. logo DKS - DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 37
HOLD 27
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $251.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $210.00
MEDIAN: $253.00
CONSENSUS: $251.43
UPSIDE: 8.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 87.7% above fair value
Current Price $231.24
Bear Case $42.37 81.7% downside ($42.37 - $231.24) / $231.24 = -81.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $123.22 46.7% downside ($123.22 - $231.24) / $231.24 = -46.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $203.95 11.8% downside ($203.95 - $231.24) / $231.24 = -11.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 53.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $251.43 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.22 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $251.43 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions