DKS - DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$268.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$300.00
LOW:
$224.00
MEDIAN:
$270.00
CONSENSUS:
$268.00
UPSIDE:
26.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
50.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.4%
vs our 10.9% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $268.00 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $129.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $268.00 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions