AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AVB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for AVB is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AVB?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AVB's most recent reported fundamentals.

AVB - AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $194.83 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 10.0% below fair value

Current Price $191.84

Bear Case $179.78 6.3% downside ($179.78 - $191.84) / $191.84 = -6.3% $13.86 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $213.16 11.1% upside ($213.16 - $191.84) / $191.84 = 11.1% $13.86 FFO × 19x

Bull Case $246.54 28.5% upside ($246.54 - $191.84) / $191.84 = 28.5% $13.86 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

13.86$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($13.86) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.83 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $213.16 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $122.40 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify