AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag AMBP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for AMBP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value AMBP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from AMBP's most recent reported fundamentals.

AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $4.52 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 37.6% above fair value

Current Price $4.04

Bear Case $1.80 55.4% downside ($1.80 - $4.04) / $4.04 = -55.4% $0.39 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $2.94 27.3% downside ($2.94 - $4.04) / $4.04 = -27.3% $0.39 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $4.06 0.4% upside ($4.06 - $4.04) / $4.04 = 0.4% $0.39 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

0.39$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.39)

Implied Market Multiple 10.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.52 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.94 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $4.52 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing