XP - XP Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$37.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$37.00
LOW:
$37.00
MEDIAN:
$37.00
CONSENSUS:
$37.00
UPSIDE:
21.67%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
24.4%
10.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (24.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.79x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 24.4% vs. 10.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.41x on $8.03 tangible book, implying $37.26 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$37.00
Analyst Range
$37.00 – $37.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.2001 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly