XP - XP Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$24.57
DETAILS
HIGH:
$33.00
LOW:
$19.00
MEDIAN:
$24.00
CONSENSUS:
$24.57
UPSIDE:
47.39%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
24.4%
10.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (24.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.14x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.57 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.06 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.57 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 48% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1957 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly