XP - XP Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$24.57
DETAILS
HIGH:
$33.00
LOW:
$19.00
MEDIAN:
$24.00
CONSENSUS:
$24.57
UPSIDE:
22.91%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
24.4%
10.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (24.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.56x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 24.4% vs. 10.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.20x on $7.81 tangible book, implying $36.58 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$24.57
Analyst Range
$19.00 – $33.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.57 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1965 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly