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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 74.3% below fair value
Current Price $159.91
Bear Case $520.34 225.4% upside ($520.34 - $159.91) / $159.91 = 225.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $622.75 289.4% upside ($622.75 - $159.91) / $159.91 = 289.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $710.82 344.5% upside ($710.82 - $159.91) / $159.91 = 344.5% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 5.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $622.75 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions