WRB - W. R. Berkley Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$69.80
DETAILS
HIGH:
$77.00
LOW:
$62.00
MEDIAN:
$70.00
CONSENSUS:
$69.80
DOWNSIDE:
7.45%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
20.9%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (20.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.29x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 20.9% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $22.94 tangible book, implying $91.76 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$69.80
Analyst Range
$62.00 – $77.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.80 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly