W. R. Berkley Corporation logo WRB - W. R. Berkley Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 18
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $68.00
CONSENSUS: $69.22
DOWNSIDE: 4.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.4% below fair value
Current Price $72.62
Bear Case $84.82 16.8% upside ($84.82 - $72.62) / $72.62 = 16.8% ROTCE 15.7% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $84.82 16.8% upside ($84.82 - $72.62) / $72.62 = 16.8% ROTCE 20.9% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $84.82 16.8% upside ($84.82 - $72.62) / $72.62 = 16.8% ROTCE 24.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

20.9%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (20.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.17x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.22 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.82 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.22 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly