W. R. Berkley Corporation logo WRB - W. R. Berkley Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 17
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $77.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $69.80
DOWNSIDE: 7.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.8% below fair value
Current Price $75.42
Bear Case $91.76 21.7% upside ($91.76 - $75.42) / $75.42 = 21.7% ROTCE 15.7% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $91.76 21.7% upside ($91.76 - $75.42) / $75.42 = 21.7% ROTCE 20.9% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $91.76 21.7% upside ($91.76 - $75.42) / $75.42 = 21.7% ROTCE 24.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

20.9%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (20.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.29x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 20.9% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $22.94 tangible book, implying $91.76 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $69.80
Analyst Range $62.00 – $77.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 31%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $69.80 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly