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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $52.00
CONSENSUS: $52.00
DOWNSIDE: 15.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.3% below fair value
Current Price $61.54
Bear Case $81.26 32.0% upside ($81.26 - $61.54) / $61.54 = 32.0% ROTCE 12.1% → 2.73x TBV
Fair Value $119.05 93.5% upside ($119.05 - $61.54) / $61.54 = 93.5% ROTCE 16.1% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $119.05 93.5% upside ($119.05 - $61.54) / $61.54 = 93.5% ROTCE 18.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.1%
7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.07x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.1% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $29.76 tangible book, implying $119.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly