Viavi Solutions Inc. logo VIAV - Viavi Solutions Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $27.50
CONSENSUS: $32.25
DOWNSIDE: 34.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 381.1% above fair value
Current Price $49.51
Bear Case $8.21 83.4% downside ($8.21 - $49.51) / $49.51 = -83.4% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $10.29 79.2% downside ($10.29 - $49.51) / $49.51 = -79.2% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $12.33 75.1% downside ($12.33 - $49.51) / $49.51 = -75.1% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 250.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.25 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.29 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples