Venture Global, Inc. logo VG - Venture Global, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $15.50
CONSENSUS: $16.13
UPSIDE: 19.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.2% below fair value
Current Price $13.51
Bear Case $15.48 14.6% upside ($15.48 - $13.51) / $13.51 = 14.6% $0.86 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $19.35 43.2% upside ($19.35 - $13.51) / $13.51 = 43.2% $0.86 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $23.22 71.9% upside ($23.22 - $13.51) / $13.51 = 71.9% $0.86 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.86$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.86, the base-case value is $19.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $16.13
Analyst Range $13.00 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples