Veeva Systems Inc. logo VEEV - Veeva Systems Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $235.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $320.00
LOW: $165.00
MEDIAN: $230.00
CONSENSUS: $235.38
UPSIDE: 23.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.2% below fair value
Current Price $190.12
Bear Case $168.47 11.4% downside ($168.47 - $190.12) / $190.12 = -11.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $247.59 30.2% upside ($247.59 - $190.12) / $190.12 = 30.2% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $337.68 77.6% upside ($337.68 - $190.12) / $190.12 = 77.6% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.2% vs our 15.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $235.38 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $247.59 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions