Veeva Systems Inc. logo VEEV - Veeva Systems Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $290.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $330.00
LOW: $165.00
MEDIAN: $300.00
CONSENSUS: $290.50
DOWNSIDE: 1.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.8% above fair value
Current Price $296.13
Bear Case $174.72 41.0% downside ($174.72 - $296.13) / $296.13 = -41.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $260.19 12.1% downside ($260.19 - $296.13) / $296.13 = -12.1% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $358.57 21.1% upside ($358.57 - $296.13) / $296.13 = 21.1% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 40.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.3% vs our 16.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $260.19 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $290.50
Analyst Range $165.00 – $330.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions