Visa Inc. logo V - Visa Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 52
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $394.15 DETAILS
HIGH: $450.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $394.00
CONSENSUS: $394.15
UPSIDE: 13.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.1% below fair value
Current Price $348.20
Bear Case $226.25 35.0% downside ($226.25 - $348.20) / $348.20 = -35.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $348.71 0.1% upside ($348.71 - $348.20) / $348.20 = 0.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $482.96 38.7% upside ($482.96 - $348.20) / $348.20 = 38.7% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 32.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.3% vs our 14.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $394.15 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $348.71 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions