Visa Inc. logo V - Visa Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 53
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $422.24 DETAILS
HIGH: $466.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $420.00
CONSENSUS: $422.24
UPSIDE: 9.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.1% above fair value
Current Price $385.45
Bear Case $221.06 42.6% downside ($221.06 - $385.45) / $385.45 = -42.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $340.70 11.6% downside ($340.70 - $385.45) / $385.45 = -11.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $471.86 22.4% upside ($471.86 - $385.45) / $385.45 = 22.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 33.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.0% vs our 14.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $340.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (62 analysts) $422.24
Analyst Range $350.00 – $466.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 19%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions