UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$32.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$34.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$32.50
CONSENSUS:
$32.50
DOWNSIDE:
25.20%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
7.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.59x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.04 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.14 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 71% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly