UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$34.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$32.50
CONSENSUS:
$32.50
DOWNSIDE:
21.99%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
7.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.51x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.03x on $27.57 tangible book, implying $56.06 per share. DDM cross-check: $15.22.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$32.50
Analyst Range
$31.00 – $34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.22 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 72% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly