U.S. Bancorp logo USB - U.S. Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $73.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $63.00
CONSENSUS: $63.82
UPSIDE: 16.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.4% below fair value
Current Price $54.83
Bear Case $41.67 24.0% downside ($41.67 - $54.83) / $54.83 = -24.0% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.35x TBV
Fair Value $62.57 14.1% upside ($62.57 - $54.83) / $54.83 = 14.1% ROTCE 15.9% → 2.02x TBV
Bull Case $75.11 37.0% upside ($75.11 - $54.83) / $54.83 = 37.0% ROTCE 18.3% → 2.43x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.9%
9.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.79x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.82 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.57 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $29.59 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly