AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes United Parcel Service, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag UPS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for UPS is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value UPS?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from UPS's most recent reported fundamentals.

UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $115.38 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 7.8% above fair value

Current Price $116.34

Bear Case $86.32 25.8% downside ($86.32 - $116.34) / $116.34 = -25.8% $6.98 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $107.89 7.3% downside ($107.89 - $116.34) / $116.34 = -7.3% $6.98 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $129.47 11.3% upside ($129.47 - $116.34) / $116.34 = 11.3% $6.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

6.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.38 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $107.89 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 100% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $250.75 (above our primary estimate by 140%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples