AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies United Parcel Service, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag UPS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for UPS comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value UPS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. UPS was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from UPS's most recent reported fundamentals.

UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $117.42 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 1.4% above fair value

Current Price $99.83

Bear Case $78.72 21.1% downside ($78.72 - $99.83) / $99.83 = -21.1% $6.56 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $98.40 1.4% downside ($98.40 - $99.83) / $99.83 = -1.4% $6.56 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $118.08 18.3% upside ($118.08 - $99.83) / $99.83 = 18.3% $6.56 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

6.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.56, the base-case value is $98.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $143.83.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $117.42

Analyst Range $76.00 – $132.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 100% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $143.83 (above our primary estimate by 46%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples