AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Union Pacific Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag UNP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Union Pacific Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for UNP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value UNP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from UNP's most recent reported fundamentals.

UNP - Union Pacific Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $303.10 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 37.6% above fair value

Current Price $299.42

Bear Case $174.11 41.9% downside ($174.11 - $299.42) / $299.42 = -41.9% $12.07 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $217.64 27.3% downside ($217.64 - $299.42) / $299.42 = -27.3% $12.07 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $261.17 12.8% downside ($261.17 - $299.42) / $299.42 = -12.8% $12.07 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

12.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $303.10 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $217.64 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $117.08 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $303.10 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples