United Bankshares, Inc. logo UBSI - United Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
UPSIDE: 6.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.9% below fair value
Current Price $46.69
Bear Case $35.35 24.3% downside ($35.35 - $46.69) / $46.69 = -24.3% ROTCE 10.1% → 1.40x TBV
Fair Value $54.83 17.4% upside ($54.83 - $46.69) / $46.69 = 17.4% ROTCE 13.5% → 2.17x TBV
Bull Case $66.53 42.5% upside ($66.53 - $46.69) / $46.69 = 42.5% ROTCE 15.5% → 2.63x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.85x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.5% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.17x on $25.29 tangible book, implying $54.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.08.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $49.50
Analyst Range $49.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $21.08 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly