UBSI - United Bankshares, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$49.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$50.00
LOW:
$49.00
MEDIAN:
$49.50
CONSENSUS:
$49.50
UPSIDE:
4.65%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
8.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.89x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 13.5% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.21x on $25.00 tangible book, implying $55.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.31.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$49.50
Analyst Range
$49.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.31 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly