United Bankshares, Inc. logo UBSI - United Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $49.50
UPSIDE: 4.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.3% below fair value
Current Price $47.30
Bear Case $35.56 24.8% downside ($35.56 - $47.30) / $47.30 = -24.8% ROTCE 10.1% → 1.42x TBV
Fair Value $55.17 16.6% upside ($55.17 - $47.30) / $47.30 = 16.6% ROTCE 13.5% → 2.21x TBV
Bull Case $66.94 41.5% upside ($66.94 - $47.30) / $47.30 = 41.5% ROTCE 15.5% → 2.68x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.89x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.5% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.21x on $25.00 tangible book, implying $55.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.31.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $49.50
Analyst Range $49.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.31 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly