United Bankshares, Inc. logo UBSI - United Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $47.50
DOWNSIDE: 0.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.0% below fair value
Current Price $47.58
Bear Case $34.47 27.6% downside ($34.47 - $47.58) / $47.58 = -27.6% ROTCE 10.1% → 1.42x TBV
Fair Value $53.47 12.4% upside ($53.47 - $47.58) / $47.58 = 12.4% ROTCE 13.5% → 2.20x TBV
Bull Case $64.87 36.3% upside ($64.87 - $47.58) / $47.58 = 36.3% ROTCE 15.5% → 2.67x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.47 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.14 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly