United Bankshares, Inc. logo UBSI - United Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $49.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $46.67
UPSIDE: 7.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.8% below fair value
Current Price $43.26
Bear Case $33.93 21.6% downside ($33.93 - $43.26) / $43.26 = -21.6% ROTCE 10.1% → 1.40x TBV
Fair Value $52.64 21.7% upside ($52.64 - $43.26) / $43.26 = 21.7% ROTCE 13.5% → 2.17x TBV
Bull Case $63.87 47.6% upside ($63.87 - $43.26) / $43.26 = 47.6% ROTCE 15.5% → 2.63x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.73x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.64 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.95 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly