TrustCo Bank Corp NY logo TRST - TrustCo Bank Corp NY

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.1% above fair value
Current Price $54.99
Bear Case $27.79 49.5% downside ($27.79 - $54.99) / $54.99 = -49.5% ROTCE 6.7% → 0.71x TBV
Fair Value $50.88 7.5% downside ($50.88 - $54.99) / $54.99 = -7.5% ROTCE 8.9% → 1.30x TBV
Bull Case $64.74 17.7% upside ($64.74 - $54.99) / $54.99 = 17.7% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.65x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.9%
7.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.9% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.30x on $39.29 tangible book, implying $50.88 per share. DDM cross-check: $25.80.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $25.80 (49% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly