TrustCo Bank Corp NY logo TRST - TrustCo Bank Corp NY

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.5% below fair value
Current Price $50.26
Bear Case $28.75 42.8% downside ($28.75 - $50.26) / $50.26 = -42.8% ROTCE 6.7% → 0.73x TBV
Fair Value $52.64 4.7% upside ($52.64 - $50.26) / $50.26 = 4.7% ROTCE 8.9% → 1.34x TBV
Bull Case $66.98 33.3% upside ($66.98 - $50.26) / $50.26 = 33.3% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.70x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.9%
7.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.28x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.9% vs. 7.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.34x on $39.29 tangible book, implying $52.64 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.35.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $26.35 (50% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly