TowneBank logo TOWN - TowneBank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 14.2% above fair value
Current Price $34.63
Bear Case $17.51 49.4% downside ($17.51 - $34.63) / $34.63 = -49.4% ROTCE 7.3% → 0.77x TBV
Fair Value $30.33 12.4% downside ($30.33 - $34.63) / $34.63 = -12.4% ROTCE 9.8% → 1.34x TBV
Bull Case $38.03 9.8% upside ($38.03 - $34.63) / $34.63 = 9.8% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.68x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.53x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.8% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.34x on $22.66 tangible book, implying $30.33 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly