AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Toll Brothers, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag TOL as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for TOL comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value TOL?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. TOL was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from TOL's most recent reported fundamentals.

TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $167.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 38.8% below fair value

Current Price $136.06

Bear Case $173.04 27.2% upside ($173.04 - $136.06) / $136.06 = 27.2% $12.36 × 14x

Fair Value $222.48 63.5% upside ($222.48 - $136.06) / $136.06 = 63.5% $12.36 × 18x

Bull Case $271.92 99.9% upside ($271.92 - $136.06) / $136.06 = 99.9% $12.36 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

12.36$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($12.36)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $12.36 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $222.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $167.67

Analyst Range $122.00 – $195.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 33%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $167.67 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing