Toll Brothers, Inc. logo TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 21
HOLD 22
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $187.00
LOW: $156.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $173.88
UPSIDE: 5.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.6% below fair value
Current Price $165.00
Bear Case $148.29 10.1% downside ($148.29 - $165.00) / $165.00 = -10.1% $12.36 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $195.49 18.5% upside ($195.49 - $165.00) / $165.00 = 18.5% $12.36 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $242.69 47.1% upside ($242.69 - $165.00) / $165.00 = 47.1% $12.36 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
12.36$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($12.36)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.88 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $195.49 per share.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing