Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. logo TNDM - Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.69 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $31.69
UPSIDE: 111.76%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.0% above fair value
Current Price $14.96
Bear Case $7.18 52.0% downside ($7.18 - $14.96) / $14.96 = -52.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $10.77 28.1% downside ($10.77 - $14.96) / $14.96 = -28.1% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $14.36 4.1% downside ($14.36 - $14.96) / $14.96 = -4.1% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 62.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.69 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.77 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.69 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case