T-Mobile US, Inc. logo TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 45
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $244.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $170.00
MEDIAN: $250.00
CONSENSUS: $244.42
UPSIDE: 29.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.4% below fair value
Current Price $188.41
Bear Case $137.18 27.2% downside ($137.18 - $188.41) / $188.41 = -27.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $199.15 5.7% upside ($199.15 - $188.41) / $188.41 = 5.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $255.78 35.8% upside ($255.78 - $188.41) / $188.41 = 35.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.9% vs our 7.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $244.42 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $199.15 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $244.42 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions