T-Mobile US, Inc. logo TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 45
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $249.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $220.00
MEDIAN: $250.00
CONSENSUS: $249.42
UPSIDE: 30.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.9% below fair value
Current Price $191.47
Bear Case $138.56 27.6% downside ($138.56 - $191.47) / $191.47 = -27.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $201.42 5.2% upside ($201.42 - $191.47) / $191.47 = 5.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $258.94 35.2% upside ($258.94 - $191.47) / $191.47 = 35.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 18.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $249.42 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.42 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $249.42 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions