T-Mobile US, Inc. logo TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 43
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $233.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $260.00
LOW: $169.00
MEDIAN: $233.50
CONSENSUS: $233.10
UPSIDE: 29.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.6% below fair value
Current Price $180.44
Bear Case $156.49 13.3% downside ($156.49 - $180.44) / $180.44 = -13.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $218.96 21.3% upside ($218.96 - $180.44) / $180.44 = 21.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $275.94 52.9% upside ($275.94 - $180.44) / $180.44 = 52.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 15.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.5% vs our 7.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $218.96 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (54 analysts) $233.10
Analyst Range $169.00 – $260.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 6%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions