Tiptree Inc. logo TIPT - Tiptree Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 119.6% above fair value
Current Price $18.36
Bear Case $5.85 68.1% downside ($5.85 - $18.36) / $18.36 = -68.1% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $8.36 54.5% downside ($8.36 - $18.36) / $18.36 = -54.5% ROTCE -7.7% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $10.87 40.8% downside ($10.87 - $18.36) / $18.36 = -40.8% ROTCE -8.8% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-7.7%
9.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-7.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -7.7% vs. 9.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $13.54 tangible book, implying $8.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.20.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-7.7%) is below the minimum investors require (9.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $27.20 (225% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly