THFF - First Financial Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$90.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$90.00
LOW:
$90.00
MEDIAN:
$90.00
CONSENSUS:
$90.00
UPSIDE:
23.64%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
14.8%
6.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.61x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 14.8% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.99x on $45.11 tangible book, implying $180.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $42.03.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $42.03 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly