First Financial Corporation logo THFF - First Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $90.00
UPSIDE: 23.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.6% below fair value
Current Price $72.79
Bear Case $118.28 62.5% upside ($118.28 - $72.79) / $72.79 = 62.5% ROTCE 11.1% → 2.62x TBV
Fair Value $180.00 147.3% upside ($180.00 - $72.79) / $72.79 = 147.3% ROTCE 14.8% → 3.99x TBV
Bull Case $180.43 147.9% upside ($180.43 - $72.79) / $72.79 = 147.9% ROTCE 17.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.8%
6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.61x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.8% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.99x on $45.11 tangible book, implying $180.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $42.03.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $42.03 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly