THFF - First Financial Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$50.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$50.00
LOW:
$50.00
MEDIAN:
$50.00
CONSENSUS:
$50.00
DOWNSIDE:
27.09%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
14.8%
6.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.52x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 14.8% vs. 6.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $45.11 tangible book, implying $180.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.69.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $36.69 (80% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly