Tenet Healthcare Corporation logo THC - Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $284.77 DETAILS
HIGH: $308.00
LOW: $242.00
MEDIAN: $285.00
CONSENSUS: $284.77
UPSIDE: 2.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.9% above fair value
Current Price $278.59
Bear Case $185.88 33.3% downside ($185.88 - $278.59) / $278.59 = -33.3% $15.49 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $232.35 16.6% downside ($232.35 - $278.59) / $278.59 = -16.6% $15.49 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $278.82 0.1% upside ($278.82 - $278.59) / $278.59 = 0.1% $15.49 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
15.49$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.49, the base-case value is $232.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $284.77
Analyst Range $242.00 – $308.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples