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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.8% below fair value
Current Price $7.80
Bear Case $11.52 47.7% upside ($11.52 - $7.80) / $7.80 = 47.7% $0.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $14.40 84.6% upside ($14.40 - $7.80) / $7.80 = 84.6% $0.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $17.28 121.5% upside ($17.28 - $7.80) / $7.80 = 121.5% $0.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.96, the base-case value is $14.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $11.68.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples