Truist Financial Corporation logo TFC - Truist Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 24
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $62.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $54.86
UPSIDE: 6.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $51.65
Bear Case $40.11 22.3% downside ($40.11 - $51.65) / $51.65 = -22.3% ROTCE 8.5% → 0.89x TBV
Fair Value $57.30 10.9% upside ($57.30 - $51.65) / $51.65 = 10.9% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.46x TBV
Bull Case $74.49 44.2% upside ($74.49 - $51.65) / $51.65 = 44.2% ROTCE 13.0% → 1.79x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.3%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.37x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.3% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.46x on $37.57 tangible book, implying $57.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.83.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (54 analysts) $54.86
Analyst Range $45.00 – $62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.83 (53% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly