Strategic Education, Inc. logo STRA - Strategic Education, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $87.00
UPSIDE: 10.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.1% below fair value
Current Price $78.50
Bear Case $83.04 5.8% upside ($83.04 - $78.50) / $78.50 = 5.8% $6.20 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.83 28.4% upside ($100.83 - $78.50) / $78.50 = 28.4% $6.20 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $118.63 51.1% upside ($118.63 - $78.50) / $78.50 = 51.1% $6.20 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.83 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples