Strategic Education, Inc. logo STRA - Strategic Education, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $93.33
UPSIDE: 13.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.1% below fair value
Current Price $81.89
Bear Case $75.88 7.3% downside ($75.88 - $81.89) / $81.89 = -7.3% $5.42 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $92.14 12.5% upside ($92.14 - $81.89) / $81.89 = 12.5% $5.42 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $108.40 32.4% upside ($108.40 - $81.89) / $81.89 = 32.4% $5.42 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.42, the base-case value is $92.14 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $93.33
Analyst Range $80.00 – $105.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 1%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples