Synopsys, Inc. logo SNPS - Synopsys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $557.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $633.00
LOW: $455.00
MEDIAN: $554.00
CONSENSUS: $557.00
UPSIDE: 25.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 159.7% above fair value
Current Price $445.50
Bear Case $33.12 92.6% downside ($33.12 - $445.50) / $445.50 = -92.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $171.52 61.5% downside ($171.52 - $445.50) / $445.50 = -61.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $321.44 27.8% downside ($321.44 - $445.50) / $445.50 = -27.8% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 142.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 35.3% vs our 13.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $557.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $171.52 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $557.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions