Synopsys, Inc. logo SNPS - Synopsys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $572.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $700.00
LOW: $420.00
MEDIAN: $570.00
CONSENSUS: $572.54
UPSIDE: 12.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 374.2% above fair value
Current Price $509.99
Bear Case $50.91 90.0% downside ($50.91 - $509.99) / $509.99 = -90.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $107.55 78.9% downside ($107.55 - $509.99) / $509.99 = -78.9% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $168.91 66.9% downside ($168.91 - $509.99) / $509.99 = -66.9% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 98.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.3% vs our 13.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $107.55 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $572.54
Analyst Range $420.00 – $700.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 81%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $572.54 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions