Synopsys, Inc. logo SNPS - Synopsys, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $543.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $455.00
MEDIAN: $550.00
CONSENSUS: $543.57
UPSIDE: 3.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 212.1% above fair value
Current Price $524.74
Bear Case $32.45 93.8% downside ($32.45 - $524.74) / $524.74 = -93.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $168.15 68.0% downside ($168.15 - $524.74) / $524.74 = -68.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $315.11 39.9% downside ($315.11 - $524.74) / $524.74 = -39.9% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 164.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $543.57 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $168.15 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 67% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $543.57 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions