AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag SMG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's fair value?

Fair value for SMG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value SMG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from SMG's most recent reported fundamentals.

SMG - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $72.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 27.4% above fair value

Current Price $65.48

Bear Case $31.62 51.7% downside ($31.62 - $65.48) / $65.48 = -51.7% $6.81 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $51.38 21.5% downside ($51.38 - $65.48) / $65.48 = -21.5% $6.81 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $71.15 8.7% upside ($71.15 - $65.48) / $65.48 = 8.7% $6.81 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

6.81$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.81)

Implied Market Multiple 9.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.75 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $72.75 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing