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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $28.50
CONSENSUS: $28.75
UPSIDE: 5.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.9% below fair value
Current Price $27.32
Bear Case $35.98 31.7% upside ($35.98 - $27.32) / $27.32 = 31.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.85x TBV
Fair Value $51.41 88.2% upside ($51.41 - $27.32) / $27.32 = 88.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $66.83 144.6% upside ($66.83 - $27.32) / $27.32 = 144.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

31.1%
9.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (31.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.15x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.75 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.41 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.64 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.75 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 105% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly