SLM - SLM Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$28.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$30.00
LOW:
$28.00
MEDIAN:
$28.50
CONSENSUS:
$28.75
UPSIDE:
21.51%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
31.1%
9.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (31.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.86x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 31.1% vs. 9.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.73x on $12.72 tangible book, implying $48.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.64.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$28.75
Analyst Range
$28.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.64 (82% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.75 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly