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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $30.80
UPSIDE: 25.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.6% below fair value
Current Price $24.61
Bear Case $36.34 47.7% upside ($36.34 - $24.61) / $24.61 = 47.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.79x TBV
Fair Value $51.92 111.0% upside ($51.92 - $24.61) / $24.61 = 111.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $67.50 174.3% upside ($67.50 - $24.61) / $24.61 = 174.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

31.1%
9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (31.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.94x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.80 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.92 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.69 (55% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.80 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly