The J. M. Smucker Company logo SJM - The J. M. Smucker Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $114.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $134.00
LOW: $95.00
MEDIAN: $117.00
CONSENSUS: $114.00
UPSIDE: 10.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.7% below fair value
Current Price $103.36
Bear Case $95.29 7.8% downside ($95.29 - $103.36) / $103.36 = -7.8% $6.84 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $115.71 11.9% upside ($115.71 - $103.36) / $103.36 = 11.9% $6.84 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $136.13 31.7% upside ($136.13 - $103.36) / $103.36 = 31.7% $6.84 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.84$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $114.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.71 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $76.55 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples