The J. M. Smucker Company logo SJM - The J. M. Smucker Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $120.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $137.00
LOW: $95.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $120.33
UPSIDE: 7.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.7% below fair value
Current Price $112.01
Bear Case $96.76 13.6% downside ($96.76 - $112.01) / $112.01 = -13.6% $6.84 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $117.50 4.9% upside ($117.50 - $112.01) / $112.01 = 4.9% $6.84 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $138.23 23.4% upside ($138.23 - $112.01) / $112.01 = 23.4% $6.84 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.84$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.50 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $76.55 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples